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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | Aug Consumer Price Index (CPI) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | Aug Producer price index (PPI) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Aug Wholesale price index (PPI) [m/m]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Aug Wholesale price index (PPI) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Aug Wholesale price index (PPI core index, excluding food and energy) [MoM]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Aug Wholesale price index (PPI core index, excluding food and energy) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
|
Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook.
The previous day, the dollar temporarily tested its lows, but was bought back at lower levels and closed the day on a rebound. The momentum of dollar selling was limited as the US interest rate trend and stock prices calmed down. While it is conceivable that the market will continue to test the downside today, it is unclear whether the market will make a significant move lower in the absence of clear-cut material. In the short term, market participants are likely to continue to take cues from US economic indicators and statements by key figures to assess their trading positions.
The previous day, EURUSD was conscious of the weakness in European economic indicators, which confirmed the weakness on the upside. Combined with developments in US interest rates, dollar buying prevailed and the euro temporarily softened. Today, it will remain to be seen whether buying will continue on the back of European economic indicators and US economic releases.
The previous day, GBPUSD was conscious of UK economic concerns and uncertainty over the interest rate outlook, which confirmed the upward pressure. The relative superiority of US interest rates made it easy to buy the dollar, which was restrained on the upside. However, a certain amount of buying support was also seen at lower levels, and some may see this as a good opportunity to push the market lower. Today, we will keep an eye on UK economic indicators and events in the US to see if the buying trend strengthens.
The previous day saw the AUDUSD confirm its upward momentum. The return of the AUDUSD was limited as the US dollar remained resilient on interest rate expectations. However, there is a certain degree of buying interest at lower levels, and the view remains that this is a good opportunity to push the market lower. Today, we will keep an eye on UK economic indicators and events in the US to see if the buying trend strengthens.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
The overall mood today was wait-and-see. Immediately after the release of the index, dollar selling prevailed and temporarily pushed the market lower, but against the backdrop of calmer stock prices and interest rates, buying returned at the lower end of the range. Thereafter, the price range was limited due to a lack of direction due to a lack of material. The pair remained in a narrow range centred on the lower ¥147 level until the end of the session. Short-term technicals also showed a receding sense of overheating, making it difficult to chase the pair higher or lower.
Today, material was limited amid continued caution on European and US economic indicators and key figures, as well as subdued US interest rate trends. The pair tested the downside several times in the early part of the day, but bounced back to the downside with buying at the lower levels. On the other hand, the upside was heavy before the previous day's highs and aggressive buying did not spread. In the end, the price remained in a small back-and-forth around 1.17, and the day gave the impression of a firming of the bottom. There was little sense of direction and the price movement was quiet until the end of the day.
From London to early New York, the pound made several attempts to the downside but failed to break out, and the firmness of the bottom was recognised. Following the release of US economic indicators, the pound entered a downside phase once dollar selling prevailed, but stalled in the second half of New York, giving back most of the gains and becoming almost insubstantial on a daily basis.
In Tokyo, buying was ahead of the market, but the market was sluggish in Europe. However, in New York, after the release of the index, dollar selling prevailed and the pair tested the upside again. As a result, the pair slightly renewed the previous day's highs and remained in a higher range at the end of the day.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
The previous day, USDJPY temporarily tested the lows, but closed on the rebound with buy-backs at the lower end of the range.
Dollar sales were limited and lacked direction due to awareness of US interest rate trends and stable stock prices.
There is a possibility of a test to the downside today, but the lack of material continues to make it difficult to see any significant movement.
Assumed range
The area around 147.00 is likely to be the downside.
The upside is a price range to around 147.80.
It is likely to remain mainly in a range, awaiting materials.
tactics
The basic policy is short-term trading based on range rotation.
Consider pushing to the downside on a test of the price and returning to the upside on an approach to the price.
Unless there is a clear break, small-scale tactics are seen as effective.
trigger
A clear break above 147.80 would trigger a search for short-term upward momentum.
A break below 147.00 could strengthen the downward trend.
Focus on US economic indicators and key figures' statements at times of the day to prepare for sudden fluctuations.
override condition
If the pair settles below 147.00, the push-back scenario is likely to be negated.
Conversely, if the pair settles above 147.80, return selling tactics are unlikely to work.
If there is a significant move out of the range, the strategy needs to be restructured.
risk event
Revised US inflation-related indicators and employment figures.
Statements by Fed officials may influence interest rate observations.
Abrupt changes in stock markets and commodity prices can also affect exchange rates.
position management
Lot sizes are kept to a lower than usual level.
The aim is to take a profit of around 20 to 30 pips and not to be greedy.
Losses are mechanically executed at levels that are clearly outside the expected range.
checklist
Is there a clear awareness of the 147.00 and 147.80 range levels?
Are you aware of the schedule of indicator releases and key figures' statements?
Are position sizes and risk tolerances adjusted in advance?
Market summary
The previous day, EURUSD was conscious of the weakness of European indicators, confirming the weakness on the upside.
The euro temporarily weakened as the US interest rate trend led to dollar buying.
Today, the search for direction continues with European economic indicators and US economic releases.
Assumed range
The downside is likely to be around 1.1680.
Movement to the upside is expected to be up to around 1.1750.
In the absence of major material, the range is likely to remain mainly in this range
tactics
The basic policy is a short-term trading policy with an awareness of range rotation.
Consider buying on the downside and selling on the upside
Focus on small initiatives without being greedy until there is a sense of direction.
trigger
A clear break above 1.1750 is likely to increase buying interest.
A break below 1.1680 could increase selling pressure.
Keep an eye on the release times of European economic indicators and US events.
override condition
If it settles below 1.1680, the push-back scenario is likely to be negated.
Conversely, if it settles above 1.1750, return selling tactics are less effective.
If they continue to move out of range, they will need to restructure their tactics.
risk event
Media coverage of ECB-related statements and policies.
US inflation-related indicators and employment-related revisions.
Sudden changes in stock and commodity markets may spill over into the exchange rate.
position management
Limit risk by setting smaller lots.
Execute interest gains as early as 20-30 pips.
Losses are taken mechanically at levels outside the expected range.
checklist
Are the range levels of 1.1680 and 1.1750 confirmed?
Are you aware of the scheduled release of European and US economic indicators?
Are position sizes and risk tolerances adjusted in advance?
Market summary
The previous day GBPUSD confirmed its upward pressure due to concerns about the UK economy and uncertainty about the interest rate outlook.
The relative advantage of US interest rates made it easier to buy the dollar, and the upside was restrained.
On the other hand, there was also a certain amount of buying support at lower prices, which some saw as a good opportunity to push the price down.
Assumed range
The downside is likely to be around 1.3500.
The upside is a conscious move to around 1.3585.
Expected to remain mainly in this range in the absence of major material
tactics
The basic short-term stance is to buy at the push of a button.
Pick up purchases cautiously in lower price ranges and prioritise gains in higher price ranges.
Return selling should be limited to the phase of a confirmed failure to the upside.
trigger
A clear break above 1.3585 would trigger stronger buying momentum
A break below 1.3500 would increase selling pressure and make a downward move more likely.
Time of day for UK economic indicators and US events is a short-term volatile factor.
override condition
If the price falls below 1.3500 and settles as it is, push-back tactics are likely to be negated.
Conversely, if it stabilises above 1.3585, a return strategy is unlikely to work.
Sustained movement out of the range would require a rethink of strategy.
risk event
Release of UK inflation-related indicators and employment statistics.
Market focus on US interest rate-related data and key figures' statements
Fluctuations in stock markets and commodity prices may spill over into the exchange rate.
position management
Limit risk by setting lot sizes conservatively.
Execute gains flexibly, with a target of 20-30 pips.
Losses are taken mechanically at levels outside the expected range.
checklist
Are the range levels of 1.3500 and 1.3585 confirmed?
Are you aware of key economic indicators and scheduled events in the UK and the US?
Have position size and stop-loss rules been set in advance?
Market summary
The previous day, AUDUSD confirmed the US dollar's resilience to the upside on the back of US interest rate speculation.
The Australian dollar's return was limited and temporarily sluggish.
On the other hand, there is a certain amount of buying interest at lower prices, and there are still those who see this as a good opportunity to buy at the push of the button.
Assumed range
The downside is likely to be around 0.6550.
The trend is for the price to move upwards to around 0.6620.
Likely to remain mainly within a range
tactics
Take a short-term stance based on push-buy
Pick up purchases cautiously in lower price ranges and prioritise gains in higher price ranges.
Return selling should be limited to phases that confirm a failure to the upside.
trigger
A clear break above 0.6620 could increase buying interest.
Watch out for a phase of prevailing selling pressure if the price falls below 0.6550.
Attention needs to be paid to the release of US economic indicators and the time of key figures' statements.
override condition
Push-back scenario likely to be negated if it settles below 0.6550
Conversely, if it stabilises above 0.6620, a return strategy is unlikely to work.
Tactics need to be reviewed if the movement continues to be significantly outside the expected range.
risk event
US inflation-related indicators and employment-related data releases.
Australian economic indicators and trends in statements by RBA officials.
Fluctuations in equity and resource prices may affect the exchange rate.
position management
Limit risk by setting lot sizes conservatively.
Interest gains are executed in steps of 20-30 pips.
Losses are taken mechanically at levels outside the expected range.
checklist
Are you aware of the range levels of 0.6550 and 0.6620?
Are you aware of key economic indicators and scheduled events in the US and Australia?
Have position size and stop-loss rules been set in advance?
AI postcards: today's market
review
Small changes centred around the 147 yen level with buy-backs after a downward push while awaiting materials.
summary
Range-bound bickering during the day with little sense of direction
Below, the area around 147.00 is considered and above, the area around 147.50-147.70 is weighed down.
Waiting for events, not rushing to turnover, shallow price range.
Today's price movements
Temporary downside due to dollar selling immediately after the index, but quickly recovered with buying at the lower end of the range.
The market continued to move back and forth between Europe and New York, converging around 147.10-147.60.
No breakthrough was seen at the end of the day and volume thinned out towards the close.
Background and materials
US inflation-related results and continued caution about key figures and limited interest rate swings.
Calm stock prices have curbed risk-averse buying of the yen and made it difficult for dollar selling to spread.
Lack of new material ahead of events in the second half of the week means that a wait-and-see attitude prevails.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Immediate support is around 147.00, where more lower whiskers are likely to be bought back in.
Volume is key for an upside breakout with a return depth around 147.50-147.70.
Oscillator overheating recedes and the VWAP area continues to be attacked
Technical note (mid-term).
In the 4-hour time frame, the bias is neutral with a range continuation of 146.30-148.70.
Moving averages are converging and external material is needed for trend generation
Watching to see if the highs are eliminated or if the lows are avoided.
impression
Focus on pre-event position adjustments and watch out for sudden headline swings.
Narrow price range, but beards tend to appear during times when the board is thin and limit price management is important.
Prioritise level and risk management over betting on direction
trade observations
Range rotation is a fine-tuning of open interest with a light profit margin of 10-25 pips.
Losses are mechanically executed when support is broken or upside resistance is breached.
Aiming for a break is conditional on confirmation of a confirmed leg and accompanying volume.
checklist
Have you grasped the 147.00 and 147.50-147.70 bands?
Have you checked the time of the next working day's indicators and key figures' statements?
Have position sizes and stop-loss ranges been fixed in advance?
review
Several attempts were made to the downside, but the downside was accepted and the price ended up in small movements around 1.17.
summary
Limited materials and lack of direction.
Selling continuity is weak and returns are limited and range-bound
Lack of active positions pending the next event.
Today's price movements
The European early morning started weakly and there was a test of the downside.
Buy-backs at lower prices, unable to extend and moving into the outward movement.
The range was limited by the closing price, which converged around 1.17.
Background and materials
Caution ahead of European and US economic indicators and key figures' statements.
Small swings in US interest rates make it difficult to determine the direction of the dollar
Settling of risk assets curbs currency volatility
Technical memorandum (short term)
The balance is closer to neutral, with downside and upside restraints coexisting.
Conscious of selling before the previous day's high and buying near the recent low.
Turnover slows down around the middle of the range as people wait and see what happens.
Technical note (mid-term).
The market continues to remain in a holding pattern and it is difficult to see a clear trend.
Range expansion room depending on materials in a phase of waiting for milestones to be hit.
Emphasis on confirming the closing price base to avoid damashi in the event of sudden changes.
impression
The ground is prone to alternating short-term short-covering and push-buying.
The board is thin for those waiting for information and need to be prepared for momentary swings.
trade observations
Reversals in a range are executed mechanically by taking a small price range.
Gains are set shallow and losses are tightened at prior levels.
Break targets are not rushed to follow until price firming is confirmed.
checklist
Have you identified the key indicators and scheduled statements for the next working day?
Have you noted the previous day's high and recent low levels?
Have position sizes and stop-loss ranges been set in advance?
review
The pair continued to test the downside from London to early New York, but was unable to break out and bounced back and forth in the mid-1.35s.
summary
The pound was temporarily pushed lower by the US dollar sell-off immediately after the US index, but buy-backs prevailed at the lower levels.
In the second half of New York, the momentum stalled, cutting down on the gains and leaving the intraday with little substance.
Generally, a tight range was maintained with little sense of direction while awaiting materials.
Today's price movements
The London session saw a test of the 1.3520 area, but the pair rebounded and returned to around 1.3560.
The pair tested the return in early New York, but the upside was limited and the break above the 1.3560 level was heavy.
The price stalled at the end of the day and converged to the 1.3530s, with limited intraday volatility.
Background and materials
Swings in interest rate observations following US inflation-related results tied up the direction of the dollar.
On the UK side, extreme risk aversion had receded, although the interest rate outlook remained uncertain.
Small swings in stocks and bonds and controlled exchange rate volatility.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Support is around 1.3510-1.3500, where more lower whiskers are likely to be bought.
Resistance is likely to be around 1.3580-1.3585, where a return sale is likely to be made.
Short-term oscillator overheating receded and the focus was on attacking and defending around the VWAP
Technical note (mid-term).
The 4-hourly is in a holding area between 1.3500 and 1.3650 and the bias is close to neutral.
Moving averages are converging and external material is needed to resume the trend
No rush to determine a break until confirmation of a band break on a closing price basis.
impression
The momentum of the downward push is slowing, but the upside is not light and the level game is likely to continue in the short term.
During times when the board is thin, beards are likely to appear and care must be taken to manage limit prices and execution slips.
trade observations
Based on range rotation, gains are chopped flexibly at around 15-25 pips.
Losses are executed mechanically when milestones are reached, such as below 1.3500 and above 1.3585.
Break targeting is followed belatedly, subject to a definitive leg and volume accompaniment.
checklist
Have you identified the times of the main indicators and key figures' statements for the next working day?
Have the 1.3500 and 1.3585 bands been updated as the latest milestones?
Have position sizes and stop-loss ranges been fixed in advance and operated without deviation?
review
Buying ahead in Tokyo but sluggish in Europe, resurfaced after the New York indices and remained high with a slight renewal of the previous day's highs.
summary
Directionality is limited while awaiting events, but the downside price seems relatively firm.
Small swings in US interest rates make the dollar vulnerable to a weakening environment.
Calming resource prices and stock markets have helped to underpin the Australian dollar
Today's price movements
Tokyo moves slowly higher to around 0.6600
The price stalled and pushed back to the 0.6590 level once the upside was restrained in Europe.
Tested around 0.6620 after the New York index and closed higher the previous day.
Background and materials
Dollar selling prevails as US inflation-related results reaffirm expectations of interest rate cuts
RBA's cautious stance and China-related stability support the Australian dollar.
Tight price range with little new material ahead of events later in the week.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Support is at 0.6580 and 0.6550, a zone where pushiness is likely to increase.
Resistance is at 0.6620 and 0.6640, a zone where return sales are likely to occur.
Oscillator overheating recedes and the focus is on attacking and defending around the VWAP
Technical note (mid-term).
Bias is closer to neutral with a continuation of the holding between 0.6520 and 0.6680.
Moving averages are converging and volume and external materials are needed for a breakthrough.
Focus on confirming the closing price-based band break and prioritise avoiding damashi
impression
A day when trading with an awareness of levels rather than trends is more likely to work
Prepare for thin time beards and watch for changes in board conditions and spreads.
trade observations
Based on range rotation, with gains chopping flexibly at 15-25 pips.
Losses are mechanically executed at milestones such as below 0.6550 and above 0.6640.
Break following is delayed participation subject to a definitive leg and tick thickness.
checklist
Have you checked the time of the next working day's US indicators and key figures' statements?
Have the bands at 0.6580 and 0.6620 been updated as the latest milestones?
Have position sizes and allowable losses been fixed in advance?
FX Diary.