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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★★ | Apr-Jun Quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP, revised) [y/y]. |
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Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★★ | Quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP, revised), Apr-Jun [annualised]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★ | Jul Balance of payments/trade balance |
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Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | Aug Trade balance (USD) |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | Aug Trade balance (RMB) |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | July Industrial production [month-on-month]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | Jul Industrial production [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
News
Japan - Prime Minister Ishiba announces his resignation.
Today's Outlook.
The USDJPY started the week weaker, opening a large window at the beginning of the week amid market instability following Prime Minister Ishiba's resignation announcement. While price movements are conscious of the window filling, the pair is still embedded in the downtrend trend following Chairman Powell's comments, and the directionality of the pair is limited. With political risks and monetary policy speculation intersecting, the market remains in a range in the short term, but the market is sensitive to key figures' statements and related reports.
EURUSD sold off more dollars following the previous day's US employment data and temporarily broke above the upward wave formed after Chairman Powell's remarks. However, the upside was then followed by a return to the upside, with most of the upside remaining as a whisker. This is a phase in which the upward pressure is likely to be felt. The market continues to search for a sense of direction based on US economic indicators and statements by key figures.
GBPUSD sold off the dollar following the previous day's US employment data and temporarily returned to the rising wave level after Chairman Powell's remarks. However, the selling subsequently intensified, leaving a long daily upper whisker. Although the upward pressure is likely to be felt, the overall trend is also seen to be in line with the descending channel, with limited directionality.
AUDUSD was temporarily higher as the US employment data from the previous day led to dollar selling, but the pair was subsequently pushed higher by selling, leaving long upper whiskers on a daily basis. Although the upward pressure is now being felt, on a four-hourly basis, the market is still within an ascending channel. Therefore, an environment that facilitates push-buying can be seen in the short term, and the market continues to search for direction using US economic indicators and Australian factors as clues.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
Selling dominated the European markets from the beginning of the day, with the market once halting at a psychological milestone just before the window filling. The subsequent recovery was limited and the market continued to lack a sense of direction until the first half of the New York session. However, towards the end of the day, dollar selling strengthened again, resulting in the closing of the window. Overall, the day was led by the downside from Europe, while the attack and defence around the milestone was sorted out in the second half of New York.
In the European markets, buying was seen early on and the trend continued into the New York hours. In New York in particular, additional buying was observed and the price movement remained firm throughout. The daily chart also showed a clear upward breakout of the entity part, breaking through the level that had previously been in the consciousness of the market. As a result, it was a day in which the upward wave that had been continuing since Chairman Powell's remarks on 22nd was confirmed as having been technically consolidated one step further.
Buying dominated early in the European markets and this trend continued into the New York hours. In the background, there was an awareness of the past decline due to the long-term interest rate shock, and the degree of recovery from that level was the focus of attention. The daily chart showed a clear return of the entity portion, indicating the strength of the correction to the downside. Overall, the day confirmed the upward momentum.
The buying was strong from the Tokyo market and this trend continued into the European market, with the upward momentum slowing somewhat in the New York time, but there was no major breakdown and the price remained firm. On the daily chart, the price exceeded the resistance with its substance, clearly breaking through the level it had been aware of. As a result, a double bottom was completed technically, confirming the upward trend on both short- and long-term time frames for the day.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
The yen started to weaken following Prime Minister Ishiba's resignation announcement, but there is a sense that the window is closing.
Still within the downtrend following Chairman Powell's remarks
Limited sense of direction due to a mix of political risk and monetary policy speculation
Assumed range
Assume a range around 147.50 - 149.50
Beware of window-filling testing and selling pressure at higher prices.
tactics
The basic idea is to stand up for range rotation.
Consider buying at the lower limit and sell back at the upper limit.
trigger
A move above around 148.80 would confirm short-term buying interest.
Wary of a downside test below 147.50.
Timing of key figures' statements and US economic indicators in Tokyo time is key.
override condition
If the price develops a clear break above 149.80 and becomes established.
If significant selling pressure appears with a break below 147.00
risk event
Japanese political press
US economic indicators (consumer prices and employment-related statistics)
Statements by key Central Bank officials.
position management
Maintain normal-sized positions and limit risk.
The profit threshold is adjusted in steps of 30-50 pips.
Losses are based on a clear exit outside the expected range.
checklist
Identification of sudden news flows due to political risks.
Track US interest rate trends and the US dollar index.
Watch for window filling and subsequent price movements
Market summary
Dollar sell-off in response to the US jobs report temporarily takes it out of the upward wave.
The upward movement was then pushed back and remained as a whisker.
Consciousness of upward pressure and a search for direction.
Assumed range
Assume price movements around 1.0800 to around 1.0950.
Upside pressure and downside buy-back may remain in equilibrium
tactics
The basic idea is to stand with range rotation in mind.
Flexible combination of short-term returns and push-backs
trigger
A break above 1.0950 confirms short-term strengthening of the buyback.
Downward test caution is required at a break below 1.0800
Triggered by economic indicators and US market flows in European time.
override condition
If the price develops a clear break above 1.1000 and becomes established.
If the price falls below 1.0750 and strong selling pressure occurs
risk event
Key economic indicators such as US CPI and retail sales
Statements by European Central Bank officials.
Sharp changes in US long-term interest rates
position management
Normal size entry to limit risk.
Interest gains are adjusted in steps of 20-40 pips.
Losses are based on the position outside the expected range.
checklist
Check the schedule for the release of major US indices.
Understand price movements and changes in liquidity in the European time zone
Watch for upward and downward price movements to take hold.
Market summary
Dollar sales in response to the US jobs report temporarily restored the upward wave.
Selling has since intensified, forming a long daily upper whisker.
Limited sense of direction due to awareness of price movements along the descending channel.
Assumed range
Assumed to be centred around 1.2550 - 1.2720
Watch for an equilibrium between heavy upside and buy-backs at lower prices
tactics
Basic response based on range rotation.
Conscious of selling back near the upper limit and buying at the lower limit
trigger
Beware of short-term buy-backs if a clear break above 1.2720 is achieved.
Wary of a downward testing trend below 1.2550.
Triggered by London time trading trends and US economic indicators.
override condition
If the view of upside restraint is broken by consolidation above 1.2750
If strong selling pressure appears below 1.2500
risk event
Major US economic indicators (CPI and retail sales)
UK economic data and statements from Bank of England officials.
Abrupt changes in US interest rates and stock markets.
position management
Moderate position size and limited risk.
The profit target is a gradual adjustment of 30-50 pips.
Losses are based on levels that are clearly outside the expected range.
checklist
Check price movements and volume during London time.
Understand US interest rate trends and the dollar index.
Watch whether the descending channel is maintained or not
Market summary
Temporary rise in dollar sales following US jobs report.
Subsequently, selling was pushed back and a long daily upper whisker formed.
Continued to be within an ascending channel on the 4-hourly timeframe
Assumed range
Movement around the 0.6500 - 0.6630 area is expected.
Watch for a balance between heavy upside and push-back at lower prices
tactics
The basic response is based on push-buy.
Focus on reactions around the lower channel limit and enter in small increments.
trigger
A move above 0.6630 would confirm short-term buying interest.
Downward test caution is required at a break below 0.6500
Triggered by Australian-related indicators in the Tokyo time and US data in the New York time.
override condition
If the price develops a clear break above 0.6660 and becomes established.
If the price falls below 0.6470 and strong selling pressure occurs
risk event
Australian economic indicators (employment-related and consumption data)
Key US economic indicators and interest rate trends.
Resource price fluctuations and China-related news.
position management
Try to keep entries small and dispersed.
Interest rate targets are adjusted in steps of 20-40 pips.
Losses are set based on levels outside the expected range.
checklist
Review of Australian economic indicator releases and market reaction.
Understand the correlation between changes in resource prices and the Australian dollar
Watch whether the ascending channel is maintained or not
AI postcards: today's market
review
The day was led downwards in the European hour and closed with the window filled in late New York.
summary
The dollar continued to be slightly lower in Tokyo hours, with dollar selling prevailing from European hours.
The rebound was limited in the first half of the New York hour, and the window filling was achieved as selling strengthened again in the second half of the hour.
The price movements were focused on the psychological milestones.
Today's price movements
The Tokyo session remained directionless around 147.80.
In the European markets, the selling went all the way down to around 147.00 at one point.
Selling resumed in the second half of the New York session, reaching levels that filled the window at the beginning of the week.
Background and materials
Risk aversion increased in the early part of the day due to the weekend's US interest rate developments.
In European hours, dollar sales were tilted in favour of the dollar, with the softness in the stock markets also adding to the weakness.
Downward pressure increased in the second half of New York due to a combination of investor position adjustments.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The four-hourly break below 147.50 strengthened awareness of the downside.
After the window was filled towards the end of the day, the lower price continued to show signs of a downward trend.
The short-term EMA remained downwards, confirming a slow return.
Technical note (mid-term).
On a daily basis, the entity fell below the milestone, reaffirming the range that has been in place since late August.
The 200-day moving average is flat, making medium-term trend judgement difficult.
There is a continued adjustment from the highs, and there is an awareness of the upward pressure on the market.
impression
Price movements from Europe to late New York reflected the market's caution over the psychological milestone.
The achievement of the window fill has provided a short-term break, but directionality remains limited.
The market remained highly materially wait-and-see and investors remained cautious.
trade observations
The sharp fall in the European hour provided an opportunity for short-term selling, while the rebound phase in the first half of New York was more difficult.
It was important to trade with an awareness of the attack and defence at the milestone, with the key response around 147.00 in particular.
Overall, the day required a flexible response in preparation for sudden changes.
checklist
Checking reactions at psychological milestones.
Watch the direction of the short-term EMA and the daily entity.
Determine linkages with US interest rates and stock markets.
review
A day of continued buying from Europe and overlapping buying in New York, which broke through the level on a daily basis.
summary
Tokyo hours remained small, with buying predominant from the European hours.
The trend remained unbroken in the New York hour, with additional buying maintaining the firmness of the market.
The substance of the wave has broken above on the daily chart, confirming the consolidation of the ascending wave.
Today's price movements
In Tokyo hours, the pair continued to stalemate around 1.1050.
Buying was stronger in European markets and the pair was seen breaking through 1.1100.
Buying continued into the New York hours and remained high until the end of the day.
Background and materials
There was a relative awareness of the settling of US interest rates and a preference for European currencies.
The stability of the stock market also supported risk appetite and led to selling pressure on the dollar.
The trend since Chairman Powell's statement on 22 May was once again confirmed.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The 4-hourly time frame showed a buying advantage as the recent high was exceeded by the substance.
The short-term EMA remained upwards, underlining the rebound at the pushpoint.
It remained high through the New York hours, confirming the strength of the short-term trend.
Technical note (mid-term).
On a daily basis, a resistance breakthrough was organised, taking over from the 22nd's upward wave.
The 200-day moving average has maintained its upward trend and provides medium-term support.
Market participants were aware of the fact that the long-term upper limit of the range had been breached.
impression
The sustained buying from Europe to New York reflected the risk appetite environment.
A clear daily break above was meant to confirm the technical milestone.
On the other hand, the material aspects were limited and the market as a whole remained cautious.
trade observations
The push from Europe was relatively easy to take.
Selling pressure at the highs remained weak through to the New York time, and the maintenance of buy positions was effective.
However, the decision to take profits was important during the rapid growth phase, and a firm response was required rather than riding the momentum.
checklist
Continued confirmation of the entity's upward movement on a daily basis.
Keep a close eye on the direction of the short-term EMA and the push levels.
Check linkages with US interest rates and stock market trends.
review
A day of continued buying from Europe, which also prevailed in New York and returned to substance on a daily basis.
summary
Tokyo hours were directionless and there was a wait-and-see mood.
Buying was ahead in European hours, and this trend was not interrupted in New York.
The substance has regained some of its daily decline and upward momentum has been recognised.
Today's price movements
The Tokyo session remained slightly above the 1.2700 area.
Buying was stronger in the European markets and a move above 1.2750 was confirmed.
Buying continued in the New York hours and the pair remained high around 1.2800 at the end of the day.
Background and materials
The market remained aware of the decline following the long-term interest rate shock.
The recovery from this reaction was noteworthy and supported the dominant buying trend.
The resilience of the stock market also boosted investor sentiment.
Technical memorandum (short term)
A clear breakthrough of the downtrend line was seen on the 4-hourly time frame.
The short-term EMA turned upwards, confirming the rebound at the pushpoint.
It remained high through the New York hours, confirming the short-term upward trend.
Technical note (mid-term).
On a daily basis, the entity has reversed the decline following the long-term interest rate shock.
The market remained above the 200-day moving average, indicating medium-term stability.
Market participants were aware of a rebound from long-term support levels.
impression
The buying trend from Europe to New York reflected the market's attempt to overcome past declines.
The daily returns stabilised investor sentiment and underpinned trading.
Meanwhile, background material is limited and the market remains cautious.
trade observations
The European hour push was relatively straightforward.
In the New York hours, the market remained at a high level and it was difficult to decide between profit-taking and new entries.
While trading along major trends was effective, caution was needed against sudden short-term fluctuations.
checklist
Continued confirmation of daily return of substance.
Keep a close watch on short-term EMAs to maintain an upward trend.
To check the linkage between long-term interest rate trends and the stock market.
review
A day of predominant buying from Tokyo to Europe, with momentum slowing in the second half of New York but breaking through resistance on a daily basis.
summary
Buying was led from Tokyo time and continued in Europe.
The upward momentum calmed down in the New York time, but there were no signs of a breakdown.
The technical consolidation has progressed with a daily break above the resistance with substance.
Today's price movements
The Tokyo session saw buying around 0.6700 and a gradual uptrend.
Buying was further intensified in the European markets, with the pair moving above 0.6750.
The rise paused in the New York hours and remained high around 0.6760.
Background and materials
Stability related to the Chinese economy supported a preference for the Australian dollar.
Settling US interest rate trends also triggered dollar selling.
Overall, risk appetite led to buying of the Australian dollar.
Technical memorandum (short term)
On the 4-hourly timeframe, the upward movement was confirmed after the formation of a double bottom.
The short-term EMA turned upwards and a rebound at the pushpoint prevailed.
The second half of New York remained at a higher level, indicating the strength of the short-term trend.
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily breakthrough of resistance has clearly exceeded a long-considered level.
The completion of the double bottom signaled a medium-term trend turn.
Medium-term support is provided by the maintenance of the 200-day moving average upwards.
impression
Price movements from Tokyo to New York confirmed the persistence of the Australian dollar buy.
The daily break above the entity provided reassurance to investor sentiment.
However, the material side was limited, indicating a continued high dependence on external factors.
trade observations
Push-backs from Tokyo to Europe were an easy phase to take.
In the NY hour, it was difficult to decide between gains and new entries at the highs.
It was important to manage the position after confirming the milestone breakthrough.
checklist
To confirm the continuation of the daily resistance breakthrough.
Keep an eye on the short-term EMA and the movement after the formation of a double bottom.
Check US interest rates and Chinese economic indicators as external factors.
FX Diary.