Market summary

USDJPY remains in a directionless range ahead of the US jobs report.

Assumed range

Assume a range centred around 147.50-148.30.

Large fluctuations are likely to be concentrated after the release of indicators.

tactics

Before indicators, use range rotation as a basis and flexibly combine short-term push-buying and return selling.

After the announcement, be prepared to move to trend-following in the event of directional movement.

trigger

A break above 148.30 could strengthen short-term buy-backs.

Selling pressure is likely to be conscious at below 147.50.

It is advisable to enter the market after checking the initial reaction following the release of the employment figures.

override condition

A clear move above 148.50 would negate the return strategy.

A significant move below 147.30 would invalidate the push-buy strategy.

risk event

The release of the US employment figures is the main focus of attention.

Average hourly earnings and labour participation rates released at the same time may also influence the direction of the dollar

position management

Keep position sizes small and limit risk before indicators

The profit target is around 20-30 pips and stop-losses are made at levels where support or resistance is clearly broken.

Be aware of liquidity after index releases and expect slippage.

checklist

Will the 147.50-148.30 range remain intact?

Whether there will be a sense of direction after the jobs report

Will the average hourly earnings result have an additional impact on the dollar?

Market summary

EURUSD continues to move in small, directionless movements as a wait-and-see attitude prevails ahead of the US jobs report.

Assumed range

Assumed range centred around 1.0800-1.0870.

Likely to remain within a range before the statistics are released.

tactics

Until the release of an index, use range rotation as a basis and flexibly combine push-buying and return selling.

After the announcement, be prepared to move to forward in the event of directional movement.

trigger

A clear break above 1.0870 could lead to a short-term buying trend

Selling pressure is likely to increase if the price falls below 1.0800.

It is advisable to wait until after the initial post-employment figures to enter the market.

override condition

A move through 1.0890 would negate the return strategy.

If the price falls below 1.0780, the push-buy strategy is invalidated.

risk event

The results of the US jobs report are the main focus of attention.

Average hourly earnings and unemployment rates are also released at the same time, which may affect the dollar market.

Lack of new material on the European side, likely to be US-led

position management

Reduce position size and limit risk before statistics are released.

The profit target is set at 20-30 pips and the stop-loss is set at a level that is clearly above support or resistance.

Immediately after the announcement, be aware of reduced liquidity and slippage and time your entry accordingly.

checklist

Will the 1.0800-1.0870 range hold?

Which direction the employment figures will take after their release.

Are average hourly earnings and unemployment rates an additional factor?

Market summary

GBPUSD remains limited with a wait-and-see attitude ahead of US jobs data

Assumed range

Assumes a range centred around 1.2600-1.2680.

Large fluctuations are likely to be suppressed until the statistics are published.

tactics

Use range rotation as a basis before the jobs report, and make short-term use of push-backs and returns.

After the announcement, be prepared to switch quickly to trend-following when directional signals appear.

trigger

Possible buyers may prevail if a clear break above 1.2680 is achieved.

Selling pressure is likely to be perceived if the price falls below 1.2600.

The trend could be tilted either upwards or downwards depending on the employment figures.

override condition

A rise above 1.2700 would negate the return strategy.

A fall below 1.2580 would invalidate the push-buy strategy.

risk event

US employment figures are the main focus of attention.

Concurrently released average hourly earnings and unemployment rates may also affect the pound dollar.

Lack of new material on the UK side, price movements likely to be mainly driven by US indices

position management

Keep positions small and limit risk before indicators.

Set the profit margin at 20-30 pips and the stop-loss at the level where the main support/resistance is broken.

Be aware of widening spreads and sudden fluctuations immediately after an index announcement, and enter cautiously.

checklist

Will the 1.2600-1.2680 range hold?

Whether there will be a sense of direction after the release of the employment figures

Will average hourly earnings or unemployment rate provide additional impetus?

Market summary

The previous day was slowly weakening in the absence of pushback, and there is a sense of weak upward momentum.

Today's environment is dominated by a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the US jobs report, making it difficult to get a sense of direction.

Liquidity tends to be concentrated in the initial reaction after an announcement, and care must be taken to avoid position bias in advance.

Assumed range

Assuming a range of around 0.6640-0.6720.

European hours are expected to move in and out of the 0.6660-0.6700 area as we await the event.

tactics

Flexibly switch between short-term push-buying and return selling based on range rotation before the index.

After an announcement, follow the direction of the break in a forward direction and close the position as soon as there is a sign of a reversal.

Avoid selling highs and lows and prioritise confirming reactions at milestones.

trigger

Room for stronger buying back above 0.6720 and testing around 0.6750.

Selling pressure increases below 0.6640 to confirm the downside around 0.6610.

Early New York jobs report and average hourly earnings surprise key to direction

override condition

To the upside, the return assumption will be broken if the price settles clearly above 0.6750.

On the downside, a clear break below 0.6610 would set back the push-back scenario.

When a fake break occurs immediately after an indicator, withdraw once at the first recovery of the high and low.

risk event

US employment statistics and average hourly earnings results.

Sharp changes in US interest rates and risk on/off shifts in equity markets

Changes in the sensitivity of the Australian dollar to changes in China-related indicators and commodity prices

position management

Assume spread widening before an index, with lot sizes reduced to less than half the normal level.

The profit margin is set at 20 to 30 pips and the stop-loss is set at the most recent milestone.

Delaying entry for a few minutes immediately after the announcement reduces the risk of slippage and sudden reversals.

checklist

Execution quotes and board thickness above and below the range of 0.6640 and 0.6720

Surprise direction of employment figures and average hourly earnings and US interest rates follow

Is the high and low renewal continuing on the 5-minute time scale after the break?

review

Weak economic indicators accelerated the sell-off and after a downward push to around Pivot S3, the return was limited and the direction unclear.

summary

Continued to remain at the halfway point, not reaching the lower wave lows after Powell's comments.

Event-derived unidirectional trend did not continue and there was an awareness of range re-establishment.

Today's price movements

Tokyo's upside was heavy as the aftermath of the previous day led to a return to the market.

In Europe, buy-backs were slow and the upside was noticeably restrained at around 148.00.

New York closed lower after the index fell further

Background and materials

Weak US indicators led to lower US interest rates and selling pressure on the dollar.

No sharp risk aversion in equities and credit, mainly currency-only reactions

Domestic materials were scarce and BOJ-related speculation did not play a leading role in the market.

Technical memorandum (short term)

147.20-147.40 is considered a downside candidate and the rebound is slow.

148.10-148.30 is the latest return barrier and selling strengthens every time it fails to break above.

Technical note (mid-term).

Daily trend remains within the post-Powell downward wave range and moving averages are trending sideways

A consolidation above 148.50 creates room for improvement, and a break below 146.80 strengthens the view of continued downward pressure.

impression

Follow the initial event but beware of fake breaks due to lack of sustainability.

A cautious stance of waiting for a second stage of return or verification of a push appears to be effective.

trade observations

Avoid widening spreads and slippage immediately after the index and wait for the waveform to settle before entering.

The profit margin is based on a 20-30 pips split and the stop-loss is set outside the recent high and low.

checklist

Will the price continue to hold lower around 147.20?

Will the return around 148.10-148.30 be restrained?

Will US interest rates continue to fall and remain under pressure to sell the dollar?

review

Weak US economic indicators led to a strong sell-off of the dollar and a rise, but after a brief break above, it fell back and formed an upper whisker.

summary

Initial buying spread, but growth slowed as profit-taking prevailed at the highs.

Sustainability of break not confirmed and direction still limited

More shades of range restructuring as we wait for the next material.

Today's price movements

European hours were dominated by buying, testing the previous day's return high zone.

NY hour saw further gains following the index, but the follow-up was weak and stalled.

The highs and lows were limited as the market shifted back and forth towards the close.

Background and materials

Weak US indicators lead to lower US interest rates and a sell-off in the dollar, supporting euro buying.

US factors are driving the development, with little new strong support from the European side.

The weekend factors also made it difficult to continue upward movement due to the rapid turnover of short-term sources.

Technical memorandum (short term)

A break decision is pending due to a noticeable upper whisker on the backslide after a break above the top.

Momentum slowing down due to awareness of a return to the market at recent highs.

Pushes are likely to be shallow and the strength of the return needs to be confirmed.

Technical note (mid-term).

Tested and rejected at the upper end of the upward wave range after Powell's statement.

Moving averages are flat and the medium-term trend is flat

Momentum indicators ooze a slight headway sign.

impression

Event-driven upswing confirmed but with limited thrust

This is the phase where you want to wait for the next renewal of the high and low with the possibility of a fake break in mind.

trade observations

The impression is that short-term selling after confirming a stall in the return is likely to work, avoiding the pursuit of higher prices.

Pushing is focused on rotation and size is controlled, even if it is picked up while shallow.

Slips and reversals during index headlines should be noted

checklist

Can it be established above the upper whisker high?

Can the recent push low be maintained and lower?

Will US interest rate moves signal continued dollar selling?

review

Weak US economic indicators led to a sell-off in the dollar, which largely reversed two days of declines, but the day's gains were eroded by profit-taking at the end of the day, resulting in a long upper whisker on the daily chart.

summary

A test to the upside was made, but the return to the highs was sluggish and sluggish.

The sustainability of the break could not be confirmed and the direction of the break was still undecipherable.

Today's price movements

Tokyo time was slightly firmer, continuing the trend of the previous day.

European hours were dominated by buying, which continued to test the upside in stages.

In the New York hour, the index was higher after the index, but stalled at the highs and narrowed the gains towards the close.

Background and materials

Weakness in key US indicators led to lower US interest rates and dollar selling.

Relatively little material from the UK side, US indices and interest rate trends led the market.

Unwinding of positions and profit-taking by short-term sources limited growth at higher levels.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The daily closed with a long upper whisker, indicating a slowdown in short-term upside momentum.

Selling pressure was perceived at the recent highs and the upside was heavier each time it was pushed back.

Short-term moving averages were flat, showing signs of range re-establishment

Technical note (mid-term).

Stalled near the upper end of the medium-term range, with the upper band limit acting as resistance

The medium-term trend was close to flat and directional judgement was awaiting confirmation of a break

impression

The event-driven upswing was confirmed, but the driving force for continued growth was not strong enough and the impression was that caution about high prices prevailed.

The situation is seen as likely to shift to ups and downs until the next material is released.

trade observations

Short-term selling after confirming a stall in the return was more likely to work than following in the high price zone.

While the push was shallow, the rebound was slow and margins were realistic for a modest turnover.

checklist

Whether or not there is an upper breakout accompanied by the resolution of stagnation and volume in the high price zone

Whether the downside continues after the formation of a push

Impact of US interest rates and US index headlines on the momentum of the pound.

review

Selling of the dollar on weak US indicators stalled after the rise, leaving a long upper whisker.

summary

Highs this week, but the upward movement did not continue, erasing some of the gains.

Impression of a return to range in direction without confirmation of a break

Today's price movements

Tokyo moves slightly lower, dragging on the previous day's softness.

Buying strengthens in Europe and moves one step higher, reaching a high in early New York.

After the index, profit-taking prevailed and growth was reduced towards the close.

Background and materials

Weakness in US economic indicators spills over into lower US interest rates and dollar sales.

China-related and commodity market tailwinds were limited and unsustainable.

Technical memorandum (short term)

Reaffirmation of the strength of the upside resistance with the formation of an upside stall upper whisker.

The recent push low was not broken, but follow-on buying was thin.

Technical note (mid-term).

The daily trend is flat after testing the upper limit of the holding area and falling back.

The next condition is the establishment of a higher closing price and accompanying volume.

impression

Event-driven upswings were confirmed but lacked traction.

Until the next material, the focus is likely to be on price-taking amidst the traffic.

trade observations

Short-term selling works after confirmation of a stall in the return, avoiding the highs.

Push to pick up shallow, but set gains in small increments.

checklist

Can the upper whisker highs be clearly established above the highs?

Will the daily trend be maintained above the breakpoint?

Does the direction of US interest rates and equities support continued dollar selling?