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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | Aug Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | July Retail sales [month-on-month]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | Jul Retail sales [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | August ADP employment figures [month-on-month]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | July Trade balance |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | New unemployment insurance applications for the previous week |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Number of people receiving unemployment insurance continuation for the previous week |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Aug Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Aug Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Index (Composite) |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook.
The USDJPY continues to lack a clear sense of direction today, with the market as a whole adopting a more wait-and-see attitude. In particular, with a series of important economic indicators due to be released from today to tomorrow, the market is likely to be cautious about building new positions. In Europe, the market may move only slightly up and down, and in New York, liquidity is expected to be limited as the market awaits the release of indicators. In such a situation, it is an effective day to flexibly use push-buy and sell-back strategies based on a risk-limited range strategy.
Today, EURUSD remains directionless and lacks a clear flow amid a mixture of buying and selling pressure. Market participants are likely to be more reluctant to take new positions, especially with a series of important economic indicators scheduled for today and tomorrow. Significant movement is likely to be limited in the European markets as well, and liquidity may be reduced in the New York markets as they await the release of indicators. Overall, a combination of push-buy and sell-back strategies based on a risk-limited, range-bound strategy will be the preferred response.
Today's GBPUSD is in a phase where the market as a whole is likely to take a wait-and-see attitude due to a series of important economic indicators from today to tomorrow. While the market is aware of the downside direction, no major movement was seen the previous day as the market was mainly adjusting. If there is a test of the downside after European hours, a strategy to aim for a return sale will be the focus of attention. However, as the market is still awaiting the release of material, a risk-limited response is required.
Today's AUDUSD is in an environment where the market is likely to take a wait-and-see attitude overall, as important economic indicators are due today and tomorrow. The focus will be on whether there will be an aggressive move higher, although the market is aware of the directional trend to the upside. There is a possibility of a buy-back in the European markets, but the formation of a major trend will depend on the results of the indicators. Overall, this is a phase in which the market should carefully assess the strength of moves to test the highs, while maintaining a tone of push-back.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
Today's USDJPY was in a wait-and-see attitude in the market as a whole, with no major price movements seen until the New York time, due to the fact that an important indicator was due. The release of the index led to temporary buying, but afterwards, the market became cautious in pursuit of higher prices and remained within a small range. The European session was similarly limited, and the day was generally devoid of a sense of direction. As a result, the impression was that trading was mainly focused on capturing small movements within the range, rather than being conscious of buying on the push side or selling on the return side.
Today's EURUSD was largely in a wait-and-see attitude in the market as important indicators were due to be released, and there was little movement until the New York time. Even after the release of the indicator, there were few surprises and the market continued to lack a sense of direction, with no bias in trading. In the European market, price movements were also limited to a small range, with the market generally remaining in a range. As a result, there were limited opportunities to launch push-back and sell-back strategies, and it was a quiet day.
Today's GBPUSD was largely unchanged until the New York time as the market as a whole took a wait-and-see attitude ahead of key indicators. Even after the release of the index, there were no surprises and the market did not trade with a sense of direction, resulting in only small price movements. In the European markets, buy-backs and sell-offs were limited and the day lacked a clear trend. Overall, there were few opportunities for aggressive push-buying and sell-backs, and the market remained quiet in a range.
The AUDUSD was temporarily in a push-back phase as the selling was dominated by the Tokyo market, but the European market remained lacklustre and lacked a sense of direction. As a result, there were no opportunities to buy on the upside throughout the day. Overall, the day was more effective for those who were conscious of the need to return to the market.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
USDJPY lacks a clear sense of direction and is developing a wait-and-see attitude.
New positions are likely to be held back ahead of key indicators and price movements are limited.
Assumed range
Assumed downside around 147.80 and upside around 148.50.
Conscious of coming and going within a range rather than a major trend formation
tactics
Mainly range rotation, with a flexible combination of push-buying and return selling.
Avoid chasing highs and selling lows and aim for small margins by identifying reversal points.
trigger
A break above 148.50 would likely strengthen the buy-dominant trend.
Selling pressure is likely to be conscious if the price falls below 147.80.
US economic indicators may provide short-term directional guidance.
override condition
A break below 147.50 would negate the push-back strategy.
If it consolidates above 148.70, the premise of the return strategy is broken.
Range denial due to sudden changes after the release of an index must be assumed.
risk event
US economic indicators (employment-related, ISM, etc.)
Changes in the interest rate outlook as a result of statements by Fed officials
Risk aversion associated with stock markets and geopolitical risks
position management
Lot sizes should be lower than usual and based on diversified entry.
Profit is set at around 148.40-148.50 and loss at 147.50 or below.
Focus on short-term trading and maintain long-term positions sparingly.
checklist
Can support around 147.80 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 148.50 be breached?
Whether US economic indicators will lead to a move out of the range
ChatGPT:.
Market summary
EURUSD continues to lack direction, with a mix of buying and selling pressure
Market participants are increasingly holding back on new positions ahead of key indicators
Assumed range
The downside is expected to be around 1.0870 and the upside around 1.0930.
Conscious of coming and going within this range until major material emerges.
tactics
The basic principle is to prioritise range rotation, with flexibility to buy on the push and sell on the return.
A short-term, contrarian-oriented attitude is effective, refraining from aiming for a break.
trigger
A clear break above 1.0930 could accelerate buybacks.
Selling pressure is likely to increase if the price falls below 1.0870
The release of US economic indicators will be a factor in providing short-term direction.
override condition
A break below 1.0850 would negate the push-back strategy.
Conversely, if it settles above 1.0950, the assumption of a return strategy is broken.
Sudden changes due to index releases could make range strategies unworkable.
risk event
Key US economic indicators (employment-related, ISM, etc.)
Changes in the interest rate outlook as a result of statements by Fed officials
Inflation-related data and business confidence indices in the European area.
position management
Lot size should be kept to half the normal size and based on diversified entry.
The profit target is set at 1.0920-1.0930 and the loss target is set below 1.0850.
Focus on short-term trading and avoid building large positions.
checklist
Can support around 1.0870 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 1.0930 be breached?
Whether there will be a move out of the range following the US economic indicators
Market summary
GBPUSD is taking a wait-and-see attitude in the overall market ahead of key economic indicators.
While there was a sense of direction and a lower line of sight, the previous day was mainly adjustment-driven and there were no major movements.
Assumed range
The downside is expected to be around 1.2680 and the upside around 1.2760.
Likely to be mainly within this range due to waiting for indicators
tactics
Basis is to prioritise a return to the market and prepare for a downward test.
A flexible approach to using push-buy and return sales within the range is also useful.
trigger
Selling pressure is likely to be felt if the price falls below 1.2680.
A break above 1.2760 could strengthen buybacks in the short term.
US and UK economic indicators provide directional factors.
override condition
A return strategy is negated if a clear break above 1.2800 is established.
Conversely, a break below 1.2650 would make it harder for a push-buy strategy to work.
Range strategies are also invalidated in the event of large swings up or down due to unexpected material.
risk event
US economic indicators (e.g. ISM, employment-related data)
Changes in pound supply and demand due to UK economic indicators and key figures' statements
Risk aversion due to geopolitical risks and stock market volatility
position management
Keep lot sizes low and diversify entries.
Set gains around 1.2690-1.2700 and losses above 1.2800.
Focus on short-term rotation and maintain long-term positions sparingly.
checklist
Whether the support around 1.2680 can be broken below
Can the resistance around 1.2760 be breached?
Whether US and UK economic indicators will affect the market
Market summary
AUDUSD has a wait-and-see attitude in the market as a whole ahead of key indicators
Directional focus is on whether there will be an aggressive move upwards, although an upward trend is still in mind.
Assumed range
The downside is expected to be around 0.6670 and the upside around 0.6730.
Easy to expect a range transition around this range while awaiting indicators
tactics
Based on push-buy, but with a flexible view to selling on the return.
Effective response to short-term rotation without assuming a trend is occurring.
trigger
A clear break above 0.6730 would likely increase buying momentum.
A break below 0.6670 would likely lead to a conscious selling pressure in the short term.
Price movements in European hours and US economic indicators could be short-term triggers.
override condition
A break below 0.6650 would negate the push-back strategy.
Conversely, if the price settles above 0.6750, the return strategy will no longer work.
The range strategy itself may be invalidated by sudden changes following the release of an index.
risk event
Key US economic indicators (employment-related, ISM, etc.)
Impact on the Australian dollar of changes in Chinese economic indicators and commodity prices.
Australian domestic inflation indicators and statements from RBA officials.
position management
Lot sizes are kept lower than usual and diversified entries are used as a basis.
The profit target is set at around 0.6720-0.6730 and the stop-loss is set below 0.6650.
Avoid chasing high prices and prioritise trading with a focus on short-term rotation.
checklist
Can support around 0.6670 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 0.6730 be breached?
Whether volatility will increase following the release of US and Chinese indicators
AI postcards: today's market
review
USDJPY lacked direction throughout the day as the wait-and-see attitude strengthened ahead of key indicators.
summary
No major price movements until the New York time, with temporary buying after the index release.
However, upward movement was limited, and the market ended up moving in small movements within a range.
Today's price movements
Tokyo hours saw a series of small ups and downs around 148.00.
The European market also lacked a sense of direction, with a narrow range between 148.10 and 147.90.
Bought to around 148.30 following the index in the New York hour, but then stalled and returned to within the range.
Background and materials
Aggressive trading was restrained as the market was aware of key indicators coming up later in the week.
US long-term interest rates remained firm, but had limited impact on the foreign exchange market
There was a lack of new material from Europe, and a wait-and-see trend dominated the market.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 147.90 was perceived as support, which helped to support the downside.
The area around 148.30 was perceived as resistance and did not break above.
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily trend shows a range continuation, with limited directional movement unless 148.50 is exceeded.
Moving averages are also flat, indicating a medium-term holding trend.
impression
No clear trend was seen through the indicator releases, giving the strong impression that the market remained within a range.
A day in which market participants' cautiousness came to the fore and the mood was one of waiting for material.
trade observations
The environment was conducive to both push-buying and return selling, but margins were limited.
High price chasing and low price selling were risky and short-term rotation was the main focus.
checklist
Can support around 147.90 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 148.30 be breached?
Whether key indicators in the second half of the week will lead to a move out of the range
review
EURUSD lacked direction throughout the day with a wait-and-see attitude ahead of key indicators
summary
There was little movement until the NY hour, and even after the index there were few surprises.
The European market also saw only small price movements, mainly in the range.
Today's price movements
Tokyo hours continued to see small movements around 1.0900.
The European market also remained in a narrow range of 1.0910-1.0890.
Even after the release of the indicator in the New York time, the pair only temporarily bought up to around 1.0920, after which it stalled again.
Background and materials
Lack of major material in both the US and Europe has led to a wait-and-see attitude among investors
US indicators were in line with expectations and had limited impact on the currency markets.
The lack of new support and factors from the European region was also a factor in the lack of direction.
Technical memorandum (short term)
1.0890 was identified as a lower support.
Short-term upside resistance around 1.0920 and no breakthrough was seen.
Technical note (mid-term).
The 1.0850-1.0950 range remains in focus
Moving averages show a sideways trend, supporting a medium-term holding tone
impression
The market was quiet with no sense of direction throughout.
Strong impression that most participants took a wait-and-see attitude for key indicators and active trading was curtailed.
trade observations
Push-backs and returns were less likely to work and trading opportunities were limited.
The main strategy was to take small profits from short-term turnover, and large profit opportunities were scarce.
checklist
Can support around 1.0890 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 1.0920 be breached?
Whether new US and European indicators will give market direction
review
GBPUSD remained in a range of small movements throughout the day, with a wait-and-see approach ahead of key indicators.
summary
There were no major fluctuations until the New York time, and surprises were limited after the index.
The day was also lacklustre in the European markets, with little buying or selling activity.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time saw a series of small ups and downs around 1.2760.
European markets were in a range of 1.2770-1.2740 with no clear direction.
The pair moved briefly following the release of the index in the New York hour, but eventually returned to the 1.2760 area.
Background and materials
Markets were increasingly shying away from active trading ahead of key US and UK indices.
The US indicators released were in line with expectations and had a limited impact on the currency markets.
The lack of new material from the European side was also a factor in the continued range trading.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Around 1.2740 was identified as support.
No short-term break was seen, with the area around 1.2770 providing upside resistance.
Technical note (mid-term).
The range of 1.2700-1.2800 continues to hold in the medium term
Moving averages show a sideways trend, supporting a trendless situation
impression
Lack of direction throughout and quiet in the range
The impression remains of a strong environment of waiting for materials and restrained active trading.
trade observations
Timing for buying on the push or selling on the return was limited and margins were difficult to take.
The main focus was on short-term, contrarian responses, with few significant profit opportunities.
checklist
Can support around 1.2740 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 1.2770 be breached?
Whether new indicators in the US and UK will give a sense of direction
review
AUDUSD fell after heavy selling in Tokyo, as dollar buying strengthened in New York on the back of the index.
summary
European markets lacked movement and were generally directionless.
The Australian dollar tested further downwards as dollar buying strengthened in the New York market.
Today's price movements
The downward push was marked by selling from around 0.6700 in the Tokyo market.
The European market was in a narrow range of 0.6680-0.6700 with limited directional movement.
The dollar was bought by the New York market following the release of the index, which fell to around 0.6660.
Background and materials
US economic indicators were in line with market expectations and triggered dollar buying.
There were no notable changes in China-related news or commodity market conditions, providing little support for the Australian dollar.
There was no new material in Australia and the environment was easily swayed by external factors.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 0.6660 was considered as support, but no strong rebound was seen.
The area around 0.6700 acted as upside resistance and was a guide for a return to the market.
Technical note (mid-term).
Downward pressure is conscious on a daily basis, and the upward trend remains heavy even in the return phase.
Medium-term holding continues unless the 0.6650-0.6750 range is broken
impression
Despite some temporary push-backs, the day was ultimately dominated by a return to the market.
The situation appeared to emphasise the upside for the Australian dollar and a cautious stance was required.
trade observations
The strategy of aiming for pushback did not work and the priority was to sell on the return.
In the short term, the move was effective in targeting small gains with support in mind.
Short-term rotation was the main focus, rather than expecting a major trend formation.
checklist
Will support around 0.6660 hold?
Can the resistance around 0.6700 be breached?
Whether US economic indicators and commodity market conditions will affect the Australian dollar
FX Diary.