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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇺 Australia | ★★ | Quarterly gross domestic product (GDP), Apr-Jun [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇦🇺 Australia | ★ | Quarterly gross domestic product (GDP), Apr-Jun [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | Aug Caixin Service Sector Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇫🇷 France | ★ | Aug Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | Aug Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | Aug Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | Aug Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | July Wholesale price index (PPI) [m/m]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | Jul Wholesale price index (PPI) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Jul Job Openings in the Current Survey of Employment (JOLTS) |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | July New orders in manufacturing [MoM]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | US District Fed Economic Report (Beige Book) |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| Type. | Hours. | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| important person's statement | 🇪🇺 Europe | Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), statement. |
Today's Outlook.
Today, USDJPY is continuing the trend of the previous day's attempt to break above the downward wave after Chairman Powell's remarks, but was unable to break out and was pushed back. There is a possibility of another attempt to test the highs, and short-term price movements need to be watched carefully. However, overall, there is no clear sense of direction and the market remains mainly in a range. In the short term, this is a situation that requires a conscious response to both push-backs and sell-backs.
Today, EURUSD was sold off sharply on the previous day, but ultimately settled within a range and failed to show any clear sense of direction. The environment is likely to limit price movements, although the trend in long-term US interest rates will continue to be of concern. Today is a phase where a combination of push-buy and sell-back strategies based on the assumption that the market will remain within a range is likely to be considered.
Today's GBPUSD broke below the upward wave following Chairman Powell's remarks the previous day and did not leave a daily downside whisker, which spread awareness to the downside among all market participants. The overall trend is likely to be centred on a return to the market. There may be a short-term adjustment phase in reaction to a large move, in which case the strategy of looking for opportunities to return to the market will be the focus of attention. Basically, it is a situation where you want to be aware of the downward direction and carefully assess the timing.
Today, AUDUSD was sold off sharply on the previous day, but did not break below clear support, and the market is also aware of the firmness of the downside. On the other hand, the daily price appears to have rebounded at resistance, so this is a phase where traders have different views on the market depending on their time frame. There is a possibility of a small return in the European markets, but it is important to wait for the price movement to consolidate in either direction rather than making hasty decisions on the direction. In the short term, the situation calls for a flexible response, with both push-buying and return selling in view.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
Today, the USDJPY stalled out, slightly renewing the previous day's highs, but then lacked momentum and failed to break out clearly above it. The market is still unable to break out of the upward wave formed after Chairman Powell's remarks, and the market continues to be unable to find a sense of direction. Although European markets were temporarily dominated by buyers, they were cautious in pursuing higher prices.
Today, EURUSD tested the previous day's lows but quickly rebounded. Since then, there have been no major developments, with limited upside and a lack of direction. While there were some occasions when small buybacks prevailed in Europe and beyond, active follow-through was refrained from.
Today, GBPUSD tested the previous day's lows at times, but rebounded early to the upside. There were no further attempts to return and the day ended in a quiet adjustment phase.
Today, the AUDUSD was firm as buying gradually started in the European markets and continued into the New York market. Buying back was predominant in the Australian dollar, which recovered all of the previous day's losses.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
USDJPY failed to push back above the downward wave after Chairman Powell's comments the previous day and remains mainly in a range.
The short-term potential to test the highs again, and the situation continues to be prone to fluctuating price movements up and down.
Assumed range
Assumed downside around 147.80 and upside around 148.50.
Difficult to get a clear sense of direction and be aware that the market is likely to move up and down.
tactics
Basic stance is to focus on range rotation and to use push-buy and return sales flexibly.
Avoid chasing highs and wait for a reaction at support or resistance before entering the market.
trigger
A clear break above 148.50 could strengthen the buying interest.
A break below 147.80 would likely lead to a conscious selling pressure in the short term.
Results of US economic indicators may provide short-term impetus
override condition
A break below 147.50 will invalidate the push-buy strategy.
On the other hand, if it consolidates above 148.70, the premise of a return strategy is broken.
risk event
US economic indicators (ISM, employment-related, etc.)
Changes in the interest rate outlook as a result of statements by Fed officials
Risk aversion due to stock market and geopolitical factors
position management
Keep lot sizes modest and diversify entries.
Set the profit target at around 148.40-148.50 and the stop-loss at 147.50 or below.
Focus on short-term trades and maintain long-term positions sparingly.
checklist
Can support around 147.80 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 148.50 be breached?
Whether volatility will increase following US economic indicators
Market summary
EURUSD remained in a range despite a large sell-off the previous day, and remained directionless.
Continued awareness of developments in long-term US interest rates, but an environment in which price movements are likely to be limited.
Assumed range
The downside is expected to be around 1.0870 and the upside around 1.0930.
The range is mainly a to-and-fro within the range, and new material is needed to get out of it.
tactics
The basic principle is to focus on range rotation and flexibly combine push-buying and return selling.
Short-term entry is valid after confirming support and resistance.
trigger
A clear break above 1.0930 would likely increase buying interest.
A break below 1.0870 would increase selling pressure and expand short-term downside awareness.
Results of US economic indicators may be a source of short-term volatility
override condition
A break below 1.0850 would negate the push-back strategy.
Conversely, if it settles above 1.0950, the assumption of a return strategy will be broken.
risk event
US economic indicators (ISM, employment-related, etc.)
Changes in the interest rate outlook as a result of statements by Fed officials
Inflation-related data and business confidence indices in the European area.
position management
Start with half the normal lot size and try to diversify entries.
The profit margin should be set around 1.0920-1.0930 and the loss margin should be set below 1.0850.
Focus on short-term trading and maintain long-term positions sparingly.
checklist
Can support around 1.0870 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 1.0930 be breached?
Whether US economic indicators will lead to a move out of the range
Market summary
GBPUSD has been increasingly conscious of the downwards direction after the previous day's upward wave after Chairman Powell's remarks and the lack of a daily downwards whisker.
Overall, the situation continues to be dominated by a trend towards a return to the market.
Assumed range
The downside is expected to be around 1.2680 and the upside around 1.2760.
Conscious of the development that the market will continue to move in a range, while testing the return in the short term.
tactics
Basic tactic is to prioritise return sales.
A posture that takes advantage of temporary rises during the adjustment phase and aims to time the return is effective.
trigger
A break above 1.2760 could strengthen buyback momentum in the short term.
Selling pressure likely to accelerate if below 1.2680.
US and UK economic indicators will be a factor influencing direction.
override condition
If 1.2800 is clearly established above, the assumption of a return to 1.2800 is broken.
Conversely, a break below 1.2650 would negate the push-back scenario.
risk event
US economic indicators (ISM and employment-related data)
Changes in the interest rate outlook as a result of statements by Fed officials
Changes in pound supply and demand due to UK economic indicators and key figures' statements
position management
Lot sizes should be lower than usual and based on diversified entry.
The profit target is set at around 1.2690-1.2700 and the stop-loss is set above 1.2800.
Focus on short-term turnover and avoid building large positions.
checklist
Can support around 1.2680 be maintained?
Will the return around 1.2760 be restrained?
Whether US and UK economic indicators will increase volatility
Market summary
AUDUSD sold off sharply the previous day, but did not break below support and is now aware of the firmness of the downside.
On a daily basis, the situation appears to have rebounded at resistance, a phase that can be viewed in different ways depending on the time frame.
Assumed range
The downside is expected to be around 0.6670 and the upside around 0.6730.
Difficult to establish a sense of direction, and likely to remain mainly in a range.
tactics
The basic principle is to be aware of range rotation and to use push-buy and return sales flexibly.
Focus on short-term price-taking until a sense of direction emerges.
trigger
A clear break above 0.6730 would likely increase buying interest.
Selling pressure is likely to prevail if the price falls below 0.6670
Economic indicator releases in Europe and the US may provide short-term directional information.
override condition
A break below 0.6650 would negate the push-back strategy.
Conversely, if it settles above 0.6750, the premise of the return strategy is broken.
risk event
US economic indicators (e.g. employment-related and ISM)
Impact on the Australian dollar of developments in the Chinese economy and commodity markets.
Australian domestic economic indicators and RBA-related statements.
position management
Keep lot sizes low and use staged entry.
Set the profit target at around 0.6720-0.6730 and the loss target at 0.6650 or below.
Refrain from long-term positions and focus on short-term trading.
checklist
Can support around 0.6670 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 0.6730 be breached?
Whether volatility will increase in US and China-related indicators
AI postcards: today's market
review
USDJPY stalled out, slightly renewing the previous day's highs but failing to break above them clearly, and continued to lack direction.
summary
The market failed to break out of the upward wave after Chairman Powell's remarks, and the market remained in a range.
Buying was prevalent in European markets at times, but there was caution in pursuit of higher prices
Today's price movements
The Tokyo session was preceded by a small buy, rising to around 148.20.
In the European market, there was a move to test around 148.30, but the pair was unable to break above, and thereafter the pair was mainly trading around 147.90-148.10.
Background and materials
Developments in long-term US interest rates continued to support the dollar.
On the other hand, new material was scarce and active position tilting was limited.
Technical levels formed after Chairman Powell's remarks still restrain the market
Technical memorandum (short term)
On the 4-hourly timeframe, resistance is around 148.30.
The downside support is around 147.80, confirming a short-term range formation.
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily trend remains within an ascending wave range, and the medium-term direction remains undefined.
Moving averages show a sideways trend and continue to hold
impression
There was a temporary test of higher prices, but the market remained cautious about chasing higher prices
While lacking a sense of direction, there is still instability, with a tendency to swing up and down.
trade observations
The environment was conducive to both push-buying and return selling, and suited short-term trading.
Avoiding highs and trading with an awareness of the upper and lower range limits was effective.
checklist
Can support around 147.80 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 148.30 be breached?
Whether US interest rates and index releases will provide direction
review
EURUSD rebounded after testing the previous day's lows, but then lacked direction with limited upside.
summary
While there was a sense of firmness on the downside, there was little upward momentum.
The overall market was mainly in a wait-and-see mood and remained within a range
Today's price movements
In Tokyo hours, the pair tested the downside around 1.0870 before rebounding back to around 1.0890.
Slight buy-backs prevailed in the European markets, but the pair remained heavy on the upside around 1.0910.
The market firmed around 1.0900 in the New York market, with limited directional movement.
Background and materials
Developments in long-term US interest rates continued to be a factor in the dollar's strength and weakness.
Lack of new strong material from the European side restrained euro buying activity.
Markets were mainly adjusting positions ahead of US economic indicators later in the week.
Technical memorandum (short term)
On the 4-hourly timeframe, 1.0870 was perceived as support and a factor in the downside.
The upside resistance was around 1.0910-1.0920 and the short-term range formation continued.
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily trend continues to hold between 1.0850 and 1.0950, and the medium-term direction is difficult to establish.
Moving averages are flat and no clear trend signals have been identified
impression
The strength of the downside was confirmed, but the ability to break through to the upside was lacking
The market is waiting for new material and a wait-and-see attitude was strongly expressed
trade observations
The environment was suitable for short-term trading, with both push-buying and return selling functioning easily.
Small rotational trades with an awareness of the range were more effective than leaning in one direction.
checklist
Can support around 1.0870 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 1.0910-1.0920 be breached?
Whether the release of US economic indicators will lead to a move out of the range
review
GBPUSD rebounded after testing the previous day's low and then ended the day in an adjustment phase with limited returns.
summary
There was a search for lower prices, but an early rebound and a move to the upside.
No significant price fluctuations were observed, and the overall trend remained adjustment-driven.
Today's price movements
Tokyo hours showed firmness around 1.2730.
In the European markets, the market moved slowly higher to around 1.2760, but momentum was lacklustre.
In the New York market, there was only a small back-and-forth around 1.2750.
Background and materials
Developments in long-term US interest rates continued to influence the strength of the dollar.
New material was scarce from the UK side, and it was difficult to generate direction in the pound alone.
A wait-and-see attitude prevailed in the market ahead of the release of US indices.
Technical memorandum (short term)
1.2730 is perceived as short-term support.
The price movement remained within a narrow range with resistance around 1.2760.
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily range is still in the 1.2700-1.2800 range.
Moving averages are flat and medium-term trends are difficult to define.
impression
A rebound was seen, but it did not lead to a clear trend and remained quiet.
Limited price range both up and down, with a sense of caution among traders
trade observations
Push-buying worked, but large gains were hard to hope for.
Return sales were difficult to establish and there were few positive trade opportunities.
checklist
Can support around 1.2730 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 1.2760 be breached?
Whether US economic indicators will change the trend
review
AUDUSD recovered all of the previous day's losses as buying from Europe continued into New York.
summary
The Australian dollar was bought predominantly from the European market onwards, absorbing the decline.
Limited sense of direction, but firmness to the downside was confirmed.
Today's price movements
Tokyo hours were limited to small movements around 0.6680.
Buying strengthened in European markets, rising to around 0.6710.
The momentum continued in the New York market and extended to around 0.6730.
Background and materials
Buy-backs prevailed in the Australian dollar amid awareness of rising long-term US interest rates.
Although there was a lack of new material from Australia, risk appetite supported the Australian dollar.
Overall, the main focus was on adjustment buying ahead of the release of US indices.
Technical memorandum (short term)
0.6680 acted as short-term support.
The upside is now conscious around 0.6730, which is the upper limit of the short-term range.
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily range of 0.6650-0.6750 continues.
Moving averages show a sideways trend, supporting a medium-term holding tone
impression
The fact that the Australian dollar fully recovered from the previous day's decline indicated the strength of the Australian dollar's lower price.
However, upward momentum is limited and lack of direction continues.
trade observations
Push-back strategies worked well, while return selling was less likely to work.
Short-term price-taking was the main focus, with long-term position building discouraged.
checklist
Can support around 0.6680 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 0.6730 be breached?
Whether US economic indicators will strengthen the direction of the Australian dollar
FX Diary.