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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★★ | Aug Consumer price index (HICP, preliminary) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★★ | Aug Consumer price index (HICP core index, preliminary) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Aug Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | Aug ISM Manufacturing Index. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
News
HIMINO, Deputy Governor, Bank of Japan, remarks Somewhat cautious stance on interest rate hikes
After the entry of European players and on the back of rising long-term US interest rates, dollar buying was the first to take advantage of the rise.
Today's Outlook.
In USDJPY today, the yen selling trend has strengthened slightly following comments made by Bank of Japan Deputy Governor HIMINO, and the market is exploring the extent of the impact of these comments. Short-term strategies such as push-buying and sell-backs are likely to be the focus of attention as we wait to see whether the momentum of the yen sell-off due to the comments has run its course.
Today's EURUSD is continuing the trend of the previous day, when it tested the highs of the rising wave after Chairman Powell's remarks, but the momentum did not continue and stalled. From now on, the results of US economic indicators will be the focus of attention, and depending on their content, there is a possibility of a move to higher highs again. Overall, the market is likely to remain in a range, while preparing for both push-backs and sell-backs.
Today's GBPUSD is following the trend of the previous day, when it tested the highs, following the upward wave after Chairman Powell's remarks, but stalled without breaking above. Market participants may take a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the release of US economic indicators, and depending on their content, there is a possibility of another test of higher prices. In the short term, this is a phase in which it is easy to be conscious of a response based on range trading, while being aware of push-buying and return sales.
The steady flow of buying has continued, but the possibility of entering an adjustment phase once the daily resistance level is approaching is also in view. In the European markets, while the market was seen to be firm, there were also some occasions when the market was aware of the heaviness of the upward trend. In the short term, the market should be wary of chasing higher prices and basically prioritise a stance of aiming for a push.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
Today's USDJPY was bought at a stretch as the yen was sold off early on against the backdrop of comments by BoJ Deputy Governor HIMINO and rising long-term interest rates. However, there were some moments when the pair was pushed back by the upside of the downside wave formed after Chairman Powell's comments. As a result, price movements swung sharply up and down, but ultimately remained within a range.
Today, EURUSD saw dollar buying prevail against the backdrop of rising long-term US interest rates, which temporarily increased downward pressure. However, the market did not gain enough momentum to break below key support and the downside was limited; there was a return test in the New York market, but there was no momentum and time ran out.
Today's GBPUSD had a day of increasing downside pressure early on as the US Dollar was bought on the back of rising long-term interest rates in the US. The market was aware of the weight of the market as it fell below the lower limit of the upward wave formed after Chairman Powell's comments.
Today, the AUDUSD was dominated by dollar buying against the backdrop of rising long-term interest rates in the US, with downward pressure building from European markets. Although the market has not clearly broken below important support, the overall impression is that the market direction has become somewhat unstable.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
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session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
USDJPY continues to be dominated by buying, with the yen selling off following comments by Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino.
The market is seeking a sense of direction while gauging the persistence of the effects of the statements.
Assumed range
Assumed downside around 147.80 and upside around 148.50.
Price movements remain centred on the range, but whether or not an upward breakout is a focus of attention.
tactics
Basic tactic is to buy at the push of a button.
On the other hand, it is also necessary to be aware of selling back at higher prices, and to take a flexible approach using a combination of range rotation.
trigger
Possible stronger buying on a break above 148.50.
Conversely, a break below 147.80 would be a phase of short-term adjustment
override condition
A break below 147.50 negates the push-buy scenario.
Sudden rises and falls without volume are also a factor in reviewing the strategy.
risk event
US economic indicators (ISM and employment-related data)
Changes in the interest rate outlook as a result of statements by Fed officials
Changes in demand for dollars due to geopolitical risks and stock market developments
position management
Lot sizes should be lower than usual and based on diversified entry.
Profit target is around 148.40-148.50, stop-loss is set at 147.50 below.
Maintain a preference for short-term trading and refrain from long-term positions.
checklist
Can support around 147.80 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 148.50 be breached?
Whether US indicators and key figures' statements will increase volatility
Market summary
EURUSD tested the rising wave after Chairman Powell's remarks the previous day, but the momentum did not continue and the trend stalled.
Markets are awaiting the release of US economic indicators to find out the direction of the market.
Assumed range
The downside is expected to be around 1.0870 and the upside around 1.0930.
Phase to be viewed on the basis of staying within a range, ahead of major events
tactics
Basic tactic is to focus on range rotation while prioritising push-buying.
Be aware of selling back in parallel, and be prepared to take a two-sided approach.
trigger
A clear break above 1.0930 could lead to a buying trend.
A break below 1.0870 is likely to raise awareness of selling pressure in the short term.
Key US economic indicators trigger short-term volatility
override condition
A break below 1.0850 would negate the push-back scenario.
On the other hand, if it settles above 1.0950, the assumption of range tactics is broken.
risk event
US economic indicators (e.g. ISM and employment-related data)
Changes in the monetary policy outlook as a result of statements by Fed officials
Results of inflation-related data and business confidence indices in the European area.
position management
Lot size is adjusted at half the normal size and based on diversified entry.
The profit target is set at around 1.0920-1.0930 and the loss target is set at below 1.0850.
Focus on short-term trades and give priority to foregoing long-term positions.
checklist
Will support around 1.0870 hold?
Can the resistance around 1.0930 be breached?
Whether volatility will increase after the release of US indices
Market summary
GBPUSD tested the highs after Chairman Powell's comments the previous day but failed to break above and stalled, continuing the wait-and-see trend.
Market participants appear to be holding back from aggressive trading ahead of the release of US economic indicators
Assumed range
The downside is expected to be around 1.2730 and the upside around 1.2790.
The range is likely to remain within this range until the release of US indicators.
tactics
The basic tactic is to focus on range rotation and use both push-buy and return selling.
A short-term price range approach is considered more effective than trend-following.
trigger
A clear break above 1.2790 could lead to a buying trend.
A break below 1.2730 would be a phase of increased selling pressure.
Results of US economic indicators will be a factor influencing short-term direction.
override condition
A break below 1.2700 would negate the push-back scenario.
Conversely, if the price settles above 1.2820, it will be harder to establish a return tactic.
risk event
Release of US ISM indicators and employment-related data.
Changes in the interest rate outlook as a result of statements by Fed officials
Changes in pound supply and demand due to UK economic indicators (e.g. PMI)
position management
Keep lot sizes low and diversify entries.
Profit target is set at around 1.2780 and stop-loss is set at below 1.2700.
Maintains a preference for short-term rotational trading and refrains from long-term positions.
checklist
Can support around 1.2730 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 1.2790 be breached?
Whether US economic indicators will increase market liquidity and direction
Market summary
AUDUSD continues to be in a steady buying trend, but is conscious of the possibility of entering an adjustment phase as it approaches the daily resistance level.
European markets showed some resilience, but were conscious of the weight of the upside
Assumed range
The downside is expected to be around 0.6670 and the upside around 0.6720.
Focus is on whether the range remains within the range, but with or without a break above it.
tactics
Basic stance is to buy at the push of a button.
Avoid chasing highs and consider entering in small increments after confirming support.
trigger
A break above 0.6720 could increase buying pressure.
Conversely, a break below 0.6670 would be a deepening of the short-term adjustment.
override condition
A clear break below 0.6650 would destroy the push-back assumption.
Stagnation with a sharp decline in volume is also a factor that invalidates the strategy.
risk event
Australian economic indicators (trade balance and housing-related data)
US economic indicators and the US dollar in general.
Impact of China-related news on the Australian dollar.
position management
Lot size starts at half the normal size and is added after confirming a push
The profit target is around 0.6710-0.6720 and the loss target is below 0.6650.
Short-term trading is the basis for trading, and long-term positions are foregone.
checklist
Will support around 0.6670 hold?
Can the upside around 0.6720 be breached?
Be aware of changes in liquidity before and after the release of Australian and US indices?
AI postcards: today's market
review
The yen sold off strongly following comments by BoJ Deputy Governor Himino and a rise in long-term interest rates, but was pulled back on the downside upside after comments by Chairman Powell and remained within range.
summary
The yen sell-off led to a quick dollar buy-off in the early stages.
However, it was pushed back to the highs and landed in a range after ups and downs.
Today's price movements
Tokyo hours saw the yen sell off on the comments, rising to around 148.20.
The pair was pushed back to around 147.80 after the European hour.
The NY session swung up and down but eventually settled slightly around 148.00.
Background and materials
Comments by BOJ deputy governor sparked speculation about monetary policy and accelerated the selling of the yen
A pick-up in long-term US interest rates provided support for the dollar.
On the other hand, the downward wave of resistance that has become conscious after Chairman Powell's comments restrained the upside.
Technical memorandum (short term)
On the 4-hourly timeframe, the area around 148.20 is considered as resistance.
The lower boundary is acting as support at around 147.80, which has clarified the upper and lower bounds of the short-term range.
Technical note (mid-term).
On a daily basis, the range formation continues around 148.00 and it is difficult to establish a sense of direction.
Moving averages are trending sideways and the trend is holding in the medium term
impression
One-way movements in response to the material were seen, but eventually converged in a range.
The market still gives the strong impression of lacking direction as the ups and downs continue.
trade observations
The market was suitable for short-term trading in an environment where both push-buying and return selling could easily work.
On the other hand, there were many occasions when it was easy to be swept away if the range was not considered and the highs were chased or the lows were sold.
checklist
Can support around 147.80 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 148.20 be breached?
To what extent do US interest rate trends affect the flow of the dollar/yen?
review
Dollar buying prevailed against the backdrop of higher US long-term interest rates, but important support remained and the downside was limited.
summary
Dollar buying in the early stages temporarily increased downward pressure.
However, it did not lead to a clear break below and lacked momentum while testing the return in the New York market.
Today's price movements
In the European market, the price fell to around 1.0880 before bouncing back down.
In the New York market, a test of around 1.0900 was seen, but it was sluggish and remained in range.
Background and materials
Rising long-term US interest rates supported dollar buying.
However, economic indicators on the European side were limited, and there was little to accelerate the euro sell-off.
The overall market took a wait-and-see attitude as it awaited US economic indicators.
Technical memorandum (short term)
On the 4-hourly timeframe, the 1.0880 area acted as support.
The upside is heavy around 1.0920-1.0930 and a short-term range is forming.
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily range of 1.0850-1.0950 continues and the direction is not clear in the medium term.
Moving averages have remained unchanged and are holding
impression
There were some temporary movements in response to the material, but in the end the market remained within a range.
The market is confirming that support is holding, but is still looking for the next clue.
trade observations
It was easy for both push-buying and return selling to work effectively in the market.
Participants who were more interested in short-term price gains than in following one direction were noticeable.
checklist
Can support around 1.0880 be maintained?
Can the resistance around 1.0930 be breached?
Whether US economic indicators will strengthen the sense of direction
review
The dollar was bought against the backdrop of rising long-term US interest rates, with GBPUSD weighing below the lower limit of the rising wave.
summary
Dollar buying led the way in the early stages, with downward pressure building
Buying interest has receded after the lower limit of the upswing following Chairman Powell's comments.
Today's price movements
The rate fell to around 1.2730 in the European market and only made a small return thereafter.
In the New York market, the price remained in the 1.2740-1.2760 area and did not rebound significantly.
Background and materials
US long-term interest rates rose, supporting demand for dollars.
New material on the UK side was scarce, and there was an awareness of the relative strength of the dollar.
Markets refrained from active trading ahead of the release of US economic indicators.
Technical memorandum (short term)
On the 4-hourly timeframe, 1.2730 is perceived as short-term support.
The upside resistance was around 1.2770, indicating the appearance of a short-term range formation.
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily trend is holding around the 1.2700 level.
Moving averages remain sideways and medium-term direction is difficult to establish
impression
The market was clearly weighed down, mainly by the buying of dollars due to rising interest rates.
On the other hand, there is no clear trend, and the market continues to wait for material.
trade observations
While return selling tended to prevail, short-term push-backs also worked locally.
Large position building was avoided, and short-term price-margins were the main focus.
checklist
Will support around 1.2730 hold?
Can the resistance around 1.2770 be breached?
Whether US economic indicators will change market trends
review
AUDUSD came under downward pressure but failed to break support as the dollar was predominantly bought on the back of rising long-term US interest rates.
summary
The Australian dollar weakened as the dollar was bought from the European markets.
Important support was maintained, but there was a sense of directional instability
Today's price movements
The pair fell to around 0.6680 during European hours, increasing downward pressure.
A small return to test the 0.6700 area was seen in the New York market, but momentum was limited.
Background and materials
Rising long-term US interest rates boosted demand for the dollar and restrained the Australian dollar's upward movement.
New material on the Australian side was scarce, and the market remained relatively dollar-driven
The general mood in the market was one of holding back on aggressive trading ahead of US economic indicators.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 0.6680 was perceived as support and a short-term downside guide.
The upside resistance was around 0.6720 and the range-building trend continued
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily trend continues to hold between 0.6650 and 0.6750, and medium-term direction is difficult to establish.
Moving averages show a sideways trend, supporting the continuation of the holding
impression
Downward pressure increased at times, but did not lead to a decisive break of support.
Buying and selling were mixed, and the overall market lacked clues and left an unstable impression.
trade observations
It was a good day for short-term trading, with both push-backs and returns easily tested.
With no major direction in sight, the focus was on range-focused rotational trading
checklist
Will support around 0.6680 hold?
Can the resistance around 0.6720 be breached?
Whether the results of US economic indicators will strengthen the direction
FX Diary.