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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¦πΊ Australia | β | July Housing construction permits [MoM]. | graphical representation | |||||
| π¨π³ China | β | Aug Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) | graphical representation | |||||
| π«π· France | β | Aug Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) | graphical representation | |||||
| π©πͺ Germany | β | Aug Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) | graphical representation | |||||
| πͺπΊ Europe | β | Aug Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) | graphical representation | |||||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | β | Aug Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) | graphical representation | |||||
| πͺπΊ Europe | β | July Unemployment rate | graphical representation |
Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| Type. | Hours. | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| stage absence | - | πΊπΈ America | - |
| stage absence | - | π¨π¦ Canada | - |
Today's Outlook.
It remains in the low range of the downward wave that occurred after Chairman Powell's comments, and no clear breakout has been confirmed. As the US markets are closed today, there is a conscious possibility that price movements may be limited due to a decrease in trading participants. In the short term, the market is likely to be in a range, and judging whether to push or sell back is a phase that requires a cautious response in light of reduced liquidity.
Although the market is at the high end of the upward wave formed after Chairman Powell's comments, no clear break out has been confirmed. As the US markets are closed today, there is a conscious possibility that price movements may be limited due to reduced liquidity. In the short term, the price is likely to remain in the high zone and new material will be needed to chase higher prices. Both push-buying and return selling require a cautious response, taking into account price swings due to thin trading.
Although the market is at the high end of the upward wave formed after Chairman Powell's comments, there has been no clear break out. As the US market is closed today, there is a conscious possibility that price movements may be limited due to reduced liquidity caused by reduced market participation. In the short term, the market is likely to remain slightly higher, and new material is required to test the upside. This is a phase that requires a cautious response based on price swings, taking into account both push-buying and return sales.
The market has so far maintained a gradual upward channel and is still moving lower, although the momentum itself is not strong. As the US market is closed today, there is an awareness that price movements may be limited due to reduced liquidity. In the short term, this is a phase where it is easy to be aware of push-buying based on the assumption that the price will remain within the channel, but care should be taken to avoid up and down swings due to sudden flows. In view of the lack of liquidity, this is a day that calls for a cautious response, including a return sell-off.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
Today, USDJPY lacked a clear sense of direction throughout the day, as the US market was closed and there was a lack of major trading materials. There was no significant movement in the European markets either, with the market mainly moving up and down within a limited price range.
Today, EURUSD saw limited testing of the higher highs of the post-Chairman Powell's remarks. Buying was led in the European markets, but momentum gradually slowed down thereafter due to limited trading activity, partly due to the US markets being closed.
Today, GBPUSD tested the highs of the upward wave formed after Chairman Powell's remarks, but failed to break above and stalled. Despite the buying interest, price action was slow and time expired due to the impact of limited trading participation due to the US markets being closed.
Today, AUDUSD saw buying dominate in the European markets, with the pair moving to the previous day's highs. In the New York market, there were no major price movements due to the US holiday, and the market continued to lack a sense of direction. Although the overall price range was limited, there were many occasions during the day when the market was perceived to be moving within an ascending channel, giving a sense of a certain degree of resilience.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
Remained at the lows of the downward wave after Chairman Powell's remarks, and lacked a sense of direction.
As the US market is closed, there is an awareness of the limited price range due to reduced liquidity.
The situation is likely to remain range-bound in the short term
Assumed range
The downside is a level of around 146.80.
The upside is likely to be in the vicinity of 147.50.
Overall, a range of 146.80-147.50 is expected.
tactics
Based on short-term range rotation in view of reduced liquidity
When picking up a push, confirm lower support and then take a smaller position.
Pay attention to sudden price movements, even when aiming for a return sale.
trigger
A clear break above 147.50 could confirm a short-term return phase.
A break below 146.80 would tend to tilt the pair towards weakness.
Note that unexpected flows occur during NY time when liquidity is lower.
override condition
Range assumption will be negated if a major break below 146.80 occurs.
Tactics need to be re-examined even if 147.50 is exceeded on a closing basis.
If volatility increases more than expected, the range strategy is invalidated.
risk event
Reduced liquidity due to US market closures
Small economic indicators and key figures released in European time.
Sudden geopolitical risks and stock market volatility could spill over into the dollar-yen.
position management
Keep the position size to half the normal size.
Take profits frequently, with a target of 10-20 pips.
Stop-losses are placed against recent support/resistance to avoid excessive risk.
checklist
Can the support level of 146.80 be maintained?
Will there be a reaction at the upside resistance around 147.50?
Availability of sudden price movements due to reduced liquidity
Market summary
Stalemate with no clear upward breakthrough, despite being located in the high zone of the upward wave.
Price range likely to be limited due to reduced liquidity with US markets closed.
Short-term ground is likely to remain range-oriented, awaiting materials.
Assumed range
Assumed range 1.0880-1.0950.
Below, the area around 1.0880 is likely to be considered as a potential push point.
The upside is likely to be around 1.0950 for a return to the market.
tactics
Basically, range rotation is used.
Consider picking up shallow pushes in small lots after confirming a rebound when the lower limit is approached.
Consider returning to the market on a split when approaching the upper limit and avoid chasing.
trigger
5-minute confirmation of a break above 1.0950 and increased volume are indicators for continued upward movement.
A slow return after a break below 1.0880 is likely to be a sign of downside advantage.
Note the flow changes in early London and before and after the FIX.
override condition
Reconsider range assumption if the price remains above 1.0960 on a closing basis.
Tactical review also in the event of a volume that establishes a 1.0870 breach.
When a high volatility turnover is confirmed in the middle of the range, with a series of sharp increases and drops.
risk event
Thin trading and transient flows due to US market holidays
Headlines on revised eurozone indicators and key figures
Spillover of sudden changes in stocks and interest rates
position management
Size should be controlled to no more than 50% of normal.
Interest is taken in 10-20 pips, divided into smaller increments.
Stop-losses are set at 15-25 pips outside the recent highs and lows, with a risk reward of at least 1:1.
checklist
Is the board thinning at 1.0880 and 1.0950?
Directionality in early London and whether there is a reversal before or after the FIX
Timing of the switch from a 5-minute bora contraction to an expansion.
Market summary
Transition to the high end of the ascending wave but lack of upward movement
Easy to reduce liquidity due to US market holidays and limited price volatility.
Short-term: range-bound ground awaiting materials
Assumed range
Assumed range 1.2700-1.2760.
On the downside, the area around 1.2700 is likely to be considered as a potential push point.
Above is likely to be around 1.2760 for a return.
tactics
Tactics are based on range rotation, with the midriff forsaken.
Consider pushing the lower limit closer in small increments after confirming the rebound.
Consider a return sale on a split when approaching the upper limit and avoid follow-up purchases.
trigger
5-minute confirmation of a break above 1.2760 and increased volume rate a continuation of the upward push.
A slowdown in return after a break below 1.2700 is treated as a signal of weakness.
Watch for flow changes in early London and before and after FIX
override condition
Range assumption revised if the closing price basis continues to hold above 1.2770
Re-examine tactics even when there is a volume of work that establishes a 1.2685 crack.
If a higher-than-expected high volatility turnover is identified
risk event
Thin trading and transient flow swings due to US market holidays
Headlines on revised UK and eurozone indicators and key figures.
Spillover of sudden changes in stocks and interest rates
position management
Position size should be controlled to no more than 50% of normal.
Gains are made in installments of 10-20 pips.
Stop-losses are set at 15-25 pips outside the recent high and low, with a risk reward of at least 1.
checklist
Confirmation of the board thickness and execution street at 1.2700 and 1.2760.
Directionality in early London and whether there is a reversal before or after the FIX
Timing of the switch from 5-minute bora contraction to expansion.
Market summary
Maintains a gradual upward channel but with limited momentum
Continued downside movement, but price movements may be scarce due to the US market holiday.
Environments where sudden flow-induced swings need to be taken into account.
Assumed range
Assumed range 0.6680-0.6740.
Below, the area around 0.6680 is likely to be considered as a push level.
On the upside, the 0.6740 area is likely to be the return point.
tactics
Tactics are based on buying at the push, but taking a cautious approach at higher prices.
If it approaches the lower limit, check for a rebound and pick it up in small lots.
Leave room to consider a split return near the upper end of the range.
trigger
A clear break above 0.6740 would raise awareness of the possibility of channel expansion.
A break below 0.6680 would signal short-term weakness
Watch for direction in early London hours and thin trade flows in NY hours.
override condition
If 0.6750 is maintained on a closing basis, the push-back assumption will be revised.
Tactics should also be reconsidered if the 0.6670 break is established.
Priority for withdrawal if the assumed range does not work due to a sharp turn to high volatility.
risk event
Reduced liquidity and transitory flows due to US market holidays
Abrupt changes in Australian economic indicators and resource prices.
Cross-flows due to spillovers from stock market and interest rate developments
position management
Position size is controlled to 50% of normal.
Gains are made in installments of 10-20 pips.
Limit risk by placing losses 15-25 pips outside the recent highs and lows.
checklist
Whether support for 0.6680 is maintained
Whether or not 0.6740 is breached and how this is accompanied by volume
Availability of sudden flows due to reduced liquidity
AI postcards: today's market
review
Today, USDJPY remained in a range throughout the day as the US market was closed.
summary
The lack of major economic indicators and events resulted in directionless price movements.
Although there was some buying in the European market, the price range was limited in the New York time.
Today's price movements
In the European markets, the pair lifted to around 147.80, but was then sluggish.
Participation was limited in the New York market, with only small movements around 147.50-147.80.
Background and materials
The US market holiday reduced liquidity, making it difficult to generate significant price movements.
In the external environment, the general movement of the dollar also calmed down and a wait-and-see mood prevailed throughout the foreign exchange market.
Technical memorandum (short term)
On the 4-hourly timeframe, the upper end of the range was tested but not broken, and the downside was limited.
Immediate support is around 147.50 and resistance is around 148.00.
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily trend continues to hover around the moving average, and the medium-term direction has not yet been consolidated.
On the other hand, it has remained stuck in the highs since August, with the level of attention focused on whether it will exceed 148.00.
impression
Today's developments were marked by a lack of material and a lack of movement.
It is felt that the market reaction needs to be checked again after the holidays.
trade observations
In the short term, the situation was conducive to both push-back and return sales.
It appears that many participants remained in position adjustment rather than building new positions.
checklist
Whether the upside around 148.00 can be broken
Will support around 147.50 hold?
Whether liquidity will return to the US market after the holiday
review
EURUSD today continued the upward wave after Chairman Powell's remarks, but did not make new highs, and trading was limited due to the US holiday.
summary
Buying was temporarily ahead in European markets, but subsequently lacked momentum and ended in small movements.
Price range remained limited due to low participation due to the US market holiday.
Today's price movements
In the European market, the price rose to around 1.0920 and was seen at the previous day's highs.
The NY market continued to range around 1.0900-1.0920 and lacked a sense of direction.
Background and materials
Aggressive trading was discouraged, mainly due to reduced liquidity due to the US holiday.
Market participants took a wait-and-see attitude amidst the recent focus on Fed officials' statements and the inflation outlook
Technical memorandum (short term)
The four-hourly trend continued to struggle in an uptrend extension.
The area around 1.0900 is likely to be a short-term support and 1.0930 a level of resistance.
Technical note (mid-term).
On a daily basis, the range has remained stagnant near the upper end of the range since July, making it difficult to determine the direction of the range.
The divergence from the moving average is small and the medium-term strength and weakness are close to each other.
impression
The market as a whole remained quiet today due to a lack of trading material.
In the short term, the predominant trend was to wait for the right moment to increase participation.
trade observations
There was an impression of a mix of those trying to push the market and those conscious of a return to the market.
Lack of direction led to mainly adjustive trading rather than active position building.
checklist
Can support around 1.0900 be maintained?
Can the upper price near 1.0930 be broken through?
Whether the restoration of liquidity after the reopening of the US market will bring a return of movement
review
Today GBPUSD tested the highs, continuing the upward wave after Chairman Powell's remarks, but failed to break above and stalled.
summary
Buying temporarily prevailed in the European market, testing the highs.
The US markets were closed, which reduced liquidity and limited price movements.
Today's price movements
In the European market, the price rose to around 1.2770, testing the previous day's highs.
In the New York market, the pair settled in a range around 1.2740-1.2770, with little sense of direction.
Background and materials
Active trading was restrained due to limited market participation due to the US holiday.
There was a lack of strong material on the pound alone, as the general movement of the dollar was calm.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The 4-hourly timeframe confirmed the formality of a push back after testing the highs.
Support was identified near 1.2740 and resistance near 1.2780.
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily trend continues to languish in the 1.2700s, with limited medium-term directionality.
Continues to hover around the moving average and remains in equilibrium
impression
Buying flows temporarily prevailed, but thin trading due to the holidays weighed on the market.
In the absence of positive new material, price movements had to be limited.
trade observations
There were many instances of a mix of push-back movements and return selling with an eye on higher prices.
Participants who limited themselves to short-term trading and avoided aggressive position building were noticeable.
checklist
Will support around 1.2740 hold?
Can it break above the 1.2780 area?
Will price movements increase as liquidity is restored after the US market reopens?
review
Today's AUDUSD was dominated by buying in the European market and reached the previous day's highs, but the NY market saw a small movement due to the US holiday.
summary
Buyers in the European markets were aware of the upward channel.
The New York market continued to lack direction with limited trading participation.
Today's price movements
The price rose to around 0.6700 during European hours and was above the previous day's highs.
The NY session settled in a range around 0.6680-0.6700, with limited price movement.
Background and materials
A US market holiday reduced liquidity, and active trading was generally restrained.
New material from the Australian side was scarce and susceptible to the external environment.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The 4-hourly chart remained in an ascending channel and was seen testing the highs
Support was identified around 0.6680 and resistance around 0.6720.
Technical note (mid-term).
On a daily basis, it has remained stagnant near the upper end of the range since July.
It was difficult to see any major direction in relation to the moving average, and it was easy to be aware that the range would continue.
impression
Thin trading due to the holidays restrained market movements, despite the predominance of buying in the European markets.
No aggressive set-ups were seen in the short term, while maintaining an upward channel.
trade observations
Pushing movements prevailed, but were unlikely to lead to higher prices.
Short-term trading adjustments were the main focus as the market as a whole took a wait-and-see attitude.
checklist
Will support around 0.6680 hold?
Can the resistance around 0.6720 be breached?
Whether liquidity will be restored in the US market after the holiday
FX Diary.